Exit Thoppigala, enter Vanni

Fate is sealed, the dye is cast for LTTE presence in Thoppigala, and the last bastion of power of LTTE in Eastern Province has fallen. I got a SMS from Dialog-Reuters alert service saying " Thoppigala captured with LTTE losing its Eastern headquarters a few hours ago, troops still clearing the area-Brig.Prasad Samarashinghe " 1055hrs, 11^th July 2007.

So that's it. Thoppigala has finally fallen, and I wonder what Illanthiriyan, the LTTE "military spokesmen" has to say about it. Lo and behold, he did say some thing. It was sent out via the Dialog-Reuters alert service saying " LTTE "will use every possible mode to engage the enemy" post Thoppigala fall." if they want to come to the North ,let them come and see what happens"

There are few things I observed in that statement. One is that, mentally the LTTE has adjusted itself to the imminent fall of Thoppigala for the last few weeks, and the statement was the culmination of it. That's the reason why they say "will use every possible mode to engage the enemy", hinting that they will revert to guerrilla warfare to fight the Government in the East. There is a hint of desperation within the LTTE in that statement, but then only time will say the validity of my statement.

Interestingly, this was the same view most of the Colombo based Tamils, who were sympathetic towards the LTTE were saying too. They too have been coming under immense pressure, as the Government was seen relentless in its push towards Thoppigala and the LTTE seemed clueless over its defenses in East. So, in turn the Pro LTTE Colombo Tamils started to push the idea that the imminent loss of Thoppigala was no big deal to the LTTE, as they (LTTE) was planning to vacate it anyway (to make space to war affected etc? ), and the LTTE will revert to guerrilla warfare in the East against the Government forces.

However, I have some reservations over this. LTTE has for a long period of time, had operated as a quasi uniformed force, with line fighting units and established support structures. So none of these cadres have been trained nor practiced the art of covert urban warfare and are, like the Military dependent on heavy weaponry at times. That's point one, against the LTTEs revert to Guerrilla warfare in the East.

Then, even if they have trained cadres in such type of warfare, can they operate clandestinely in the East, given the factors posed by the present situation?

Current situation is that the anti-Prabhakaran breakaway LTTE group, the Karuna faction and armed elements of EPDP are at loggerheads and involved in somewhat open war with each other, while at the same time the Karuna Group has split into two with Pillian, Karuna's former trusted Military commander fighting against the Karuna Group (K) has crated a major hotbed of inter-militancy war in the East.

In this scenario, while Karuna (K), Karuna (P) and EPDP are on the look out for each others activity and try and check mate in a violent manner, how will the remaining fatigued and demoralized LTTE cadres in East wage a guerrilla war against the Government?

So, point two is that in terms of actual power, the LTTE is severely drained in the East and in absence of a fresh infusion of blood from Vanni, whoever left in the East, of the LTTE is going to quietly disappear. However, there may be a clamor or two might materialize but it will not hamper the Governments intended political timetable set for East.

Going back to Ilanthiriyan statement, where he said. " if they want to come to the North, let them come and see what happens", it seems that there is a definite expectation from the side of the LTTE that the attack on its Northern stronghold is imminent. Though I will take it in pinch of salt, as I have also heard what both V.Thamilchelvan and R.Illanthiriyan had to say about Muttur/Sampoor/ Mavil Aru and Verugal earlier. LTTE's rhetoric of its great power, war and mother of all casualties within SL military is nothing but a dud.

Ilantheriyan in an interview with Roland Burke of the BBC when asked whether the LTTE has received a defeat said that, "In a way yes. From a point of view it is a defeat." since the government forces have gained a greater control of the Eastern Province".

So from another point of view, fall of Thoppigala is the start of a new Political landscape in Sri Lanka. There is East in one side , along with the governments intention to hold elections there, and then there is the LTTE, backed out from Peace Talks, severely under pressure over- child recruitments , exchange of terror know-how with other international terrorist groups, financial fraud/extortion in host countries in North America and Europe/Australia, to name a few on the pariah list of the rest of the International Community and the falling economy of the country along with the so called HR 'abuses' in the part of the government , will crate a unique mix of choices and options to all the powers to be.